5 key takeaways from the August jobs report | St. Louis business news | stltoday.com

2022-09-03 02:00:00 By : Mr. WeiPing Wang

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The nation's job market last month delivered just what the Federal Reserve and nervous investors hoped for: A Goldilocks-style hiring report.

Job growth was solid — not too hot, not too cold. And more Americans began looking for work, which could ease worker shortages over time and defuse some of the inflationary pressures that the Fed has made its No. 1 mission.

Employers added 315,000 jobs, roughly what economists had expected, down from an average 487,000 a month over the past year.

The unemployment rate reached 3.7%, its highest level since February. But it rose for a healthy reason: Hundreds of thousands of people returned to the job market, and some didn't find work right away.

The American economy has been a puzzle this year. Economic growth fell the first half of 2022, which, by some informal definitions, signals a recession.

But the job market is still surprisingly robust. Businesses remain desperate to find workers. They've posted more than 11 million job openings, meaning there are nearly two job vacancies, on average, for every unemployed American.

And inflation, which began to accelerate alarmingly in the spring of last year, remains close to a 40-year high. That's a sign that consumers' appetite for goods and services is still strong enough to allow businesses to raise prices.

The relentless rise in consumer prices has forced the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively to try to slow hiring and wage increases and drive down inflation. It's aiming to pull off a so-called soft landing — raising borrowing costs enough to slow growth and curb inflation without tipping the United States into a recession.

"Today's report answers the persistent recession question, at least for today: We are not in a recession,'' said AnnElizabeth Konkel, senior economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. "The U.S. labor market remains strong with employers adding jobs and labor supply coming back online... The sun is still shining on the U.S. labor market.''

FILE - Hiring sign is displayed at a restaurant in Highland Park, Ill., Thursday, July 14, 2022. Fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefi…

Friday's report from the government suggests that the Fed may find it a little easier to bring the economy in for a soft landing. Key to that daunting task is seeing hiring ease a bit — enough, anyway, to reduce the pressure on employers to raise pay. When they hand out raises, businesses typically increase prices for their customers to offset their higher labor costs, thereby feeding inflation.

Not only did August's job creation decelerate from July's breakneck pace — 526,000 added jobs — but the Labor Department also revised down its earlier estimate of the gains for June and July by a combined 107,000. In addition, average hourly pay rose just 0.3% last month from July, the lowest month-to-month gain since April.

"If the Fed were to design the (jobs) report, this is the kind of report they would have designed,'' said Megan Greene, chief economist at the Kroll Institute.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear — notably at a hawkish speech last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming — that the central bank expects to impose further large rate hikes to try to tame inflation. And he warned that the Fed's continued tightening of credit will cause pain for many households and businesses as it slows the economy and potentially lead to job losses. The Fed has raised its benchmark short-term interest rate four times this year, including by a hefty three-quarters of a percentage point in both June and July.

Investors are anxiously anticipating what the Fed will do when it next meets Sept. 20-21.

"The slower pace of payroll gains in August, together with a big rebound in the labor force, and the more modest increase in wages, would seem to favor a smaller (half-point) rate hike from the Fed,'' said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Still, Fed policymakers will be watching to see whether inflation decelerated last month. One major barometer will be the government's report on consumer prices for August, to be issued Sept. 13.

Normally, an uptick the joblessness would be sobering news, even cause for worry. Not now.

The unemployment rate rose last month to 3.7% from 3.5%, which had tied a 50-year low. But the increase in August was welcome: The number of Americans either working or looking for work surged by 786,000 in August, the biggest one-month jump since January. And their share of the population — the so-called labor force participation rate — rose to 62.4% last month, its highest level since March.

To be counted as unemployed, people have to be actively seeking a job. So when they stay on the sidelines, as many have since COVID-19 struck, their absence from the labor force means they don't show up as unemployed. And the jobless rate can look artificially low.

Last month, the number of Americans who told the Labor Department they had jobs rose by 442,000. And the number who said they were unemployed also rose, by 344,000. That suggests that many people who started looking for a job didn't find one right away.

"The labor participation rate went up, and I would love to see that number continue to climb even if that means a 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9% unemployment rate,'' said Labor Secretary Marty Walsh. "You have potentially 11 million open jobs. Having more people entering the workforce is good for the economy.''

The idea is that the more Americans there are who are looking for work, the less pressure there is on employers to raise wages to attract applicants, increase prices and contribute to inflation.

Last month's jobs gains were spread broadly across industries. Retailers added 44,000. Healthcare gained 48,000, including nearly 15,000 at hospitals.

Factories added 22,000 jobs despite a slowing global economy, a consumer shift away from manufactured goods and toward services like restaurant meals and a stronger dollar that makes U.S.-made goods pricier overseas.

But hiring in leisure and hospitality slowed sharply in August — to 31,000, including just 18,000 at bars and restaurants. Both gains were the weakest since December 2020.

The average workweek slipped slightly last month to 34.5 hours. Those figures haven't changed much this year even as employers have complained about a worker shortage.

So why aren't they assigning more hours to the workers they have on hand?

Labor Secretary Walsh suspects that employees, especially in high-paying occupations, are more conscious of striking a balance between their work and their personal lives and balk at putting in ever more hours on the job. Employers are wary, having seen "people quitting their jobs because their work-life balance was off,'' Walsh suggested.

An increase in employees working from home, or splitting time between home and the workplace, may also limit the number of hours worked.

In the leisure and hospitality business, which includes restaurants and hotels, average hours worked peaked in April 2021 and has fallen more or less steadily since then. Thomas Feltmate, senior economist at TD Economics, said the drop might reflect a "softening in consumer demand in recent months for discretionary recreational services.''

An increase in the unemployment rate of Black Americans last month couldn't be explained by an influx into the labor force.

The number of Black people working or looking for work fell by 51,000. And their labor participation rate dipped from 62% in July to 61.8% last month, the lowest point since December. The number of Black Americans reporting that they had jobs fell by 131,000 last month. And the number saying they were unemployed rose by 79,000.

The Black jobless rate rose from 6% in July to 6.4% in August, the highest level since February.

It isn't entirely clear what caused the uptick in Black unemployment, the second straight increase. The Labor Department's racial breakdown of employment numbers can be volatile from month to month. But the number of Black Americans in the labor force — and their participation rate — has now dropped for three straight months.

Photo Credit: Olena Yakobchuk / Shutterstock

The U.S. labor market has been a strong one for workers for much of the two years since the COVID-19 pandemic began. After the pandemic shut down large parts of the economy and put millions out of work, employment has recovered quickly, and the unemployment rate sat at 3.6% as of June 2022. But workers have also been able to be more selective about their job opportunities. Workers across the income scale have sent quit rates to historic highs in what’s been coined the “Great Resignation,” seeking out jobs with better pay, working conditions, or alignment with their lifestyles or professional goals.

Despite the pandemic’s economic disruptions and the looming prospect of a recession, many workers today have excellent opportunities to earn more or advance their careers. And some fields offer even greater opportunity than others thanks to economic, demographic, and technological trends that predate the pandemic. From globalization to the aging of the population to the rise of the internet, major forces have reshaped the economy and created new professions and even new industries in a matter of years.

Among major occupational categories, healthcare support professions have seen the most significant growth over the last decade. These professions have seen a 67% increase in employment since 2011, powered in no small part by the aging and increased healthcare needs of the Baby Boomer generation. Other standout high-growth categories include business and financial operations, transportation and material moving, and management, each of which have had growth greater than 40% over the last decade during the economy’s steady recovery from the Great Recession. And computer and mathematical occupations have experienced an impressive 36.6% growth as technology, data, and analytics become ever more essential to how businesses function.

The economy’s fastest-growing occupational categories share another important characteristic: many of them pay well. Over the last decade, occupations in the lowest quintile for median annual wages experienced -2.6% growth, while occupations in the middle quintile saw employment growth of 11.6%. But the highest-earning occupations saw a 28.8% percentage change in employment between 2011 and 2021. These statistics highlight both increased opportunity in well-compensated professions and a lack of employment opportunities in lower-paying jobs.

Employment growth has also been unevenly distributed by geography. The Mountain West has seen the greatest growth over the last decade. Utah leads the nation with 33.3% employment growth since 2011, followed by neighboring Idaho, Arizona, and Colorado, who each registered growth above 20%. Sun Belt states have also fared well, with Florida, Texas, California, and South Carolina among the fastest-growing states for employment. Conversely, eight states saw a decrease in the total number employed during this same time period.

While employment growth overall has been strong in many fields, some specific occupations are clear standouts for the rate of growth they experienced between 2011 and 2021. Some professions more than doubled the total number of people employed, in jobs as diverse as airfield operations specialists, manicurists and pedicurists, and financial examiners. And in one case—mathematical science occupations—total employment more than tripled, with an impressive 215.1% growth over the last ten years.

The data used in this analysis is from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. To determine the jobs with the largest growth over the last decade, researchers at Filterbuy calculated the percentage change in employment between 2011 and 2021. In the event of a tie, the job with the greater total change in employment over the same time period was ranked higher. All measures of employment were considered at the national level, and only careers with full employment data were considered in this analysis.

Here are the jobs with the largest growth over the last decade.

Photo Credit: Pixel B / Shutterstock

Photo Credit: Kaspars Grinvalds / Shutterstock

Photo Credit: ESB Professional / Shutterstock

Photo Credit: Olena Yakobchuk / Shutterstock

Photo Credit: Anna Demianenko / Shutterstock

Photo Credit: David Gyung / Shutterstock

Photo Credit: MIND AND I / Shutterstock

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